Should auld economies be forgot
By Bruce Watson
Published on July 04, 2008
Several Fiscal New Years had passed since we'd thrown a Fiscal New Year's Eve party so this June 30, we decided it was time.
We'd been to many parties in the meantime. Last year's bash at Bear Stearns was the best. Bear drove his Ferrari into a tree and Stearns danced with a solid gold lampshade on his head. Several brokers dove head first into the commodities pool and lost their shirts. Now it was our turn.
But how do you celebrate an economy that's in the tank? We figured we should keep it upbeat but we failed to foresee the trouble with bears.
It began ominously enough when the guy from Morgan Stanley showed up with the champagne. No Dom Perignon for this economy. The Morgan Stanley guy - we never found out whether it was Morgan or Stanley - brought Sam's Club Champagne straight from Wal-mart. No one wanted to drink it and that set the tone for the evening as everyone mixed drinks out of cleaning fluids we had around the house. Windex Futures were way up on the big board.
Next came the gang from Paine Webber. For reasons only a Harvard M.B.A. could fathom, they all dressed as mortgage experts from Countrywide. They circulated among the guests offering variable rate mortgages, then bursting into demonic laughter. Everyone agreed this was in poor taste but some took special offense.
Towards 9 p.m., two guys from Charles Schwab invited the whole Paine Webber team outside and began screaming the latest Dow Jones averages at them. Above the roar, we could hear the Paine Webber guys melt down. Then the Hedge Fund specialists began pelting both groups with the price of the euro.
Leave it to the Motley Fool to make things worse. Tom and Dave walked through the party handing out "free" tips for "10 Hot Stocks Guaranteed to Double in 2008." This caused a panic as the Wells Fargo team dove over the crowd to get a "free" prospectus.
About this time I noticed several people in the corner giggling. I went over to see what they found so funny in today's economy. Apparently one of them, drunk out of her mind on oil futures, had started mumbling, "housing bubble, housing bubble." Now they were all saying it, just laughing and laughing.
An hour before midnight, the mood bottomed out. Someone turned on the TV and Lou Dobbs was on. Unemployment was steady and inflation was lower than expected, Dobbs said. At least 20 minutes had passed since the last time anyone had shouted "Recession!" Maybe the coming fiscal year wouldn't be so bad after all. Then the bears went wild.
First, some broker I'd never seen before walked through the crowd carrying a sign which read "THE END IS NEAR! BUY T-BILLS!" This led to a run on the cleaning fluids until we ran out and had to open the Sam's Club Champagne. All the blue chips were gone, and the dip, too. Some fool, motley or otherwise, had written the price of oil on his forehead and was running amok in the living room. The day traders had gone home in disgust. And who knew where Warren Buffet was?
Midnight was approaching and perhaps I'd had too much to drink but I swear I saw the ghost of Malcolm Forbes ride through on his motorcycle. Rather than create a bullish mood, however, Forbes just had everyone chanting "Capitalist Tool!" "Capitalist Tool!"
As the new fiscal year began, people drifted out the front door toward other careers. I heard a few women say they were thinking about having families. Several guys in their late 40s were talking early retirement. And I just wanted to go home, but this was my home. And this was my economy. And both were a mess. Happy Fiscal New Year!
